Not long ago, both the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres were struggling below the .500 mark, on the fringes of the wild card race. However, both teams have significantly improved, inching closer to the formidable Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings. While we recently highlighted the emergence of rookie center fielder Jackson Merrill for the Padres, the Diamondbacks boast a genuine MVP candidate in second baseman Ketel Marte.
Marte has been a pivotal player for Arizona this season, especially as young star Corbin Carroll has faced challenges after winning the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year award. Currently, Marte has accumulated 5.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to Fangraphs, nearly double that of the Diamondbacks’ next best position player, first baseman Christian Walker. However, Diamondbacks fans are holding their breath, as Marte is currently dealing with a left ankle sprain that led to his placement on the injured list.
Just a couple of weeks ago, I conducted an interim analysis of the 2024 MVP race, identifying Marte as a serious contender. I ranked him third in the NL MVP chase, behind the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani and the Mets’ Francisco Lindor, but ahead of the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna. Each of these players brings unique strengths to the table; Ohtani and Ozuna are primarily designated hitters, while Lindor is a standout at a premium defensive position.
In the American League, the MVP race includes notable names like the Yankees’ Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, as well as the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. Soto and Judge are both impactful sluggers, contrasting with Ohtani and Ozuna’s roles. While Judge excels in power, Soto showcases impressive plate discipline and defensive skills. Witt brings a similar profile to Lindor but adds significant baserunning value.
Marte, while not necessarily a traditional slugger, has already hit 30 home runs this season. Though he may not contend for a batting title this year, many argue he’s one of the purest hitters in the mix. As a switch-hitter, Marte avoids the disadvantages posed by breaking pitches, demonstrating his versatility. He consistently records high exit velocities, with an impressive 93 mph average for ground balls—significantly above league average. His fly ball and line drive exit speeds are also exceptional, sitting at 93.7 mph and 98.2 mph, respectively.
Additionally, Marte maintains a strong K/BB ratio, with a strikeout rate of 17.8% and a walk rate of 10.4%, both better than league averages. While he’s had some luck with balls in play, his expected batting line supports his performance, projecting a .288/.362/.512 season, reflecting his strong offensive capabilities.
So why isn’t Ketel Marte a household name at 30 years old? He’s only had a season of this caliber once before, in 2021. Injuries have plagued him over the years, affecting his speed and overall performance. Once considered a five-tool player, his sprint speed currently ranks in the 46th percentile.
If Marte can regain his health—he had been performing well for most of the season—he could significantly impact the Diamondbacks’ playoff push. His current fly ball rate of 30.8% suggests room for improvement, and his 8.5-degree launch angle is his lowest since 2018.
The Diamondbacks have experienced a rollercoaster season, recently suffering a sweep against the Rays. With a tight race for three NL wild card spots involving the Diamondbacks, Padres, Mets, and Braves, losing Marte for an extended period could jeopardize Arizona’s playoff hopes. Fans and teammates alike are hoping for a swift recovery so that Marte can showcase his talents and solidify his status among baseball’s elite.
