Your last chance to trade Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football is approaching, especially after his recent performance. Mahomes finally delivered the breakout game that his fantasy truthers have been eagerly awaiting, throwing for 262 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT against the Las Vegas Raiders, scoring 18.2 points in fantasy leagues.
Upcoming Matchups Favor Mahomes
Mahomes has an opportunity to build on this success when the Kansas City Chiefs face the beleaguered Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary in Week 9. This unit has been struggling, allowing the most points per game on average (22.8) to fantasy quarterbacks this season. For those who drafted Mahomes high and have held onto him, this matchup could be a sweet spot for your fantasy team.
However, while this is exciting news, it’s also the best time to sell high on him before the fantasy trade deadline. Start Mahomes against the Bucs this week, and then consider trading him the following week, understanding that his impact may not be as significant for the rest of the season.
The Schedule After the Bucs
After the Bucs, the Chiefs will play the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills. The Broncos are known for their strong defense, allowing the fourth-fewest points to quarterbacks (12.2 points on average), while the Bills give up the fifth-fewest (13.4 points).
After these tough matchups, the Chiefs will face the Carolina Panthers and the Raiders, who allow an average of 20.1 and 16.6 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, respectively. While these matchups may seem favorable, the end-of-season schedule poses challenges. The Chiefs will play the Los Angeles Chargers in the last game of the fantasy regular season, a team that allows an average of 13.9 points to quarterbacks, followed by the Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, and Pittsburgh Steelers in the fantasy playoffs, allowing 16.2, 16.7, and 12.2 points, respectively.
Mahomes’ Performance and Strategy
On the year, Mahomes is averaging 206.4 passing yards, 4.1 rushing yards, 1 TD, and 1.1 INTs per game. Since Rashee Rice got injured, he’s thrown 3 TDs against 5 INTs. Without a true WR1 (no, DeAndre Hopkins is not the reincarnation of Jerry Rice), Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense have shifted to a run-first operation. They’re running the ball 31.1 times per game, the sixth-most in the NFL, while throwing it 32.1 times, ranking 14th.
This balanced approach is leading to wins but not producing many fantasy points for Mahomes. As the team focuses on building for the playoffs rather than fantasy playoffs, expect the trend to continue. They’re relying on the ground game and defense to secure victories, limiting Mahomes’ fantasy upside.
The Perfect Time to Trade
With the fantasy football trade deadline looming, and Mahomes coming off a decent game with a likely strong performance against a weak defense in Week 9, it’s an opportune moment to gauge what you can get in return for the former fantasy star. His name still carries weight in the fantasy community, and if he performs well against the Bucs, you can spin it as him being on an upswing in the home stretch.
The reality is that Mahomes is a matchup-based starter this season and won’t have enough favorable matchups down the stretch to support a solid playoff run. Now is the time to make your move and capitalize on his recent performance.
